Commit: ec17a424b3474e4cafce15f7f713b872033b4e81 - myprojects-hg-reborn (hg)

Commit MetaInfo

• Revision: ec17a424b3474e4cafce15f7f713b872033b4e81 (tree)
• Zeit: 2019-04-05 21:48:37
• Autor: Lorenzo Isella <lorenzo.isella@gmai...>
• Commiter: Lorenzo Isella

Log Message

I added a presentation in beamer using the metropolis style.

Ändern Zusammenfassung

• add: latex-documents/fdi_summary.tex

Diff

diff -r 4e58f172310f -r ec17a424b347 latex-documents/fdi_summary.tex
--- /dev/null	Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 1970 +0000
+++ b/latex-documents/fdi_summary.tex	Fri Apr 05 14:48:37 2019 +0200
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+
+\documentclass[10pt]{beamer}
+
+\usetheme[progressbar=frametitle]{metropolis}
+\usepackage{appendixnumberbeamer}
+ \usepackage{graphics}
+
+\usepackage{booktabs}
+\usepackage[scale=2]{ccicons}
+\usepackage{xcolor, colortbl}
+
+\usepackage{pgfplots}
+\usepgfplotslibrary{dateplot}
+
+\usepackage{xspace}
+\newcommand{\themename}{\textbf{\textsc{metropolis}}\xspace}
+
+\title{Foreign Direct Investment Data}
+\subtitle{Overview and Issues}
+% \date{\today}
+\date{}
+\author{Lorenzo Isella}
+\institute{DG Trade, Unit G2}
+% \titlegraphic{\hfill\includegraphics[height=1.5cm]{logo.pdf}}
+
+\begin{document}
+
+\maketitle
+
+\begin{frame}{Table of contents}
+  \setbeamertemplate{section in toc}[sections numbered]
+  \tableofcontents[hideallsubsections]
+\end{frame}
+
+\section{Introduction}
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{State of Play}
+The statistical team gets rather frequently some questions about FDI. We
+always reply by providing publicly available ESTAT data.
+
+We cannot blame our colleagues for not being able to dig up the data
+by themselves.
+
+Several aspects of the FDI data presentation by ESTAT could and should be improved. This
+presentation aims at triggering a discussion about how to approach
+ESTAT to unravel the FDA data.
+
+\end{frame}  
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{Recurring Questions}
+  \begin{itemize}
+  \item How much is the EU28 FDI to Africa? And the Chinese one?
+      \item Japan external trade organisation publishes the Chinese
+        FDI to Africa, why don't we have it?
+  \item Do you have the FDI data for 2018? No? But I saw it on
+     EUROSTAT!
+     \item Do you have data before 2013 I can use to see the trend
+       along many years?
+    \item The website of Georgia published some time ago its
+      FDI to/from France for 2018, why can't we use it?
+    \item We like the very positive flow of FDI from country X to
+      country Y in 2016. Can you give us the latest data? Ah, now it is
+      negative and also in 2016 it is reported as negative?  
+
+ \end{itemize}   
+
+\end{frame}
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{And Our Reaction}
+  \begin{itemize}
+\item We discourage mixing data from different sources (and even from
+  the same source if collected following different methodologies
+  [pre-BPM6 FDI data]). We
+  rely on ESTAT FDI data.
+\item Easy to criticise ESTAT for the obscure way the FDI data is
+  presented on their site, but  
+\item our colleagues are not to blame for being confused about the
+  availability and freshness of FDI data
+ \item and our task of explaining that the data is not there yet, or
+   that, if it is there, it may not be what they asked for can be difficult. 
+\item An aside: we need to track the volatility of FDI data (in particular the
+  flows) and the corrections to already published data.
+
+  
+\end{itemize}
+    
+
+\end{frame}  
+
+
+\section{FDI Data  }
+
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Data Providers}
+  There are several international organisations providing FDI data, e.g.
+  \begin{itemize}
+  \item EUROSTAT
+  \item OECD
+  \item UNCTAD
+    \item etc...
+  \end{itemize}  
+
+  but often FDI data is not collected systematically or it does not
+  deploy the latest recommended methodology (BPM6) or the data is (very) ``seasoned''.
+
+  Despite all the issues we will mention, EUROSTAT is still the best
+  resource for FDI data. To be reassessed as soon as UNCTAD releases a
+  new database of bilateral FDI flows.
+  
+  
+\end{frame}
+
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{Well Kept Secrets -- 1/2}
+Few people know in depth the methodological choices and the making of
+FDI data. FDI data comes from the balance of payment data (BOP) and it
+is presented as
+\begin{enumerate}
+\item \underline{assets/liabilities}: straight from the BOP data, quarterly
+  data and the Member States (MS) have to provide the data within 85
+  days from the end of the quarter $\to$ the data is always relatively
+  fresh;
+\item  \underline{directional representation} (outward and inward FDI, positions,
+  flows and income): yearly data on EUROSTAT and the MS can provide it
+  within 9 months from the end of the year $\to$ we still have 2017
+  data. Relies on BOP data, but further info is required.
+
+\end{enumerate}  
+
+In the overwhelming majority of the cases the user (perhaps
+unconsciously) wants the directional representation, but the existence
+of fresher data branded as FDI may cause confusion. 
+
+  \end{frame}
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{Well Kept Secrets -- 2/2}
+Regardless of the chosen representation, the FDI data on ESTAT is scattered among different
+data sets and the EU28 is, in some cases, separated from all the
+individual MS.
+
+Add to this that you need an inordinate number of double clicks to get
+to what you want and you understand that this is enough to discourage
+the average (and above average) user.
+
+\end{frame}  
+\section{Concepts and Definitions}
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{Balance of Payments}
+
+BOP is a statistical statement that summarises the transactions of an
+economy with the rest of the world.   Transactions are organised into
+\begin{itemize}
+\item \underline{current and capital account}: it determines the exposure of an
+  economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world and in particular
+  \begin{itemize}
+\item    the current account covers international transactions in goods, services, income, and current transfers;
+
+\item    the capital account covers international capital transfers (e.g. debt forgiveness) and the acquisition/disposal of non-produced, nonfinancial assets (such as patents);
+
+\end{itemize}
+\item \underline{financial account}: it determines how the exposure is
+  financed: it deals with transactions involving financial claims on, or liabilities to, the rest of the world, including international purchases of securities, such as stocks and bonds.
+
+  
+\end{itemize}  
+
+In principle, the sum of the two accounts is zero. FDI data is buried
+in the financial account.
+
+
+\end{frame}
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{FDI}
+Foreign direct investment (FDI) is the category of international
+investment that reflects the objective of obtaining a lasting interest
+by an investor in one economy in an enterprise resident in another
+economy.
+
+Where to find it?
+\begin{itemize}
+\item asset/liability presentation: BOP quarterly 
+  (\verb|bop_c6_q| and \verb|bop_eu6_q|) and monthly (\verb|bop_c6_m|
+  and \verb|bop_eu6_m|) data, look for the financial
+  account and direct investment;
+  \item directional representation: \verb|bop_fdi6_pos| and
+    \verb|bop_fdi6_flow|  data sets (with some info on the FDI broken
+    by NACE). Yearly data collected from 2013 according to the BPM6
+    methodology (see  \url{https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/pdf/bpm6.pdf})
+\end{itemize}  
+
+
+  \end{frame}
+
+  \begin{frame}[fragile]{FDI: Asset/Liability Representation}
+
+In a country’s balance of payments, nonresidents' claims made on
+residents' financial assets are liabilities, while claims made against
+nonresidents by residents are assets.
+\begin{itemize}
+\item Economic assets are resources over which ownership rights are enforced and from which future economic benefits may flow to the owner.
+\item Liabilities are  contractual obligations to deliver cash or similar to another entity or a potentially unfavorable exchange of financial assets or liabilities with another entity
+\end{itemize}  
+
+
+\end{frame}  
+
+  \begin{frame}[fragile]{FDI: Negative Asset/Liability}
+    \begin{itemize}
+
+\item Negative asset: it could be due to an accumulated depreciation
+  of an asset. A simple, non-financial example is that of a car which
+  has yearly maintenance costs which finally overtake the value of the
+  car. The car is a negative asset, but still an asset since it can be
+  sold while killing the maintenance costs.
+  \item Negative liability: a credit balance. One company pays out
+    more than the amount required by the liability.
+      \end{itemize}
+The discussion could go on (disinvestments, reverse stocks, etc...)
+.
+    \end{frame}
+
+
+ \section{Relations Between the FDI Data Presentations}   
+
+  \begin{frame}[fragile]{FDI Data: an Example}
+
+French FDI from BOP statistics with the extra
+EU28. Net=assets-liabilities. Values in MIO EUR. See \url{https://frama.link/vJcW7v06}
+    
+% latex table generated in R 3.5.3 by xtable 1.8-3 package
+% Thu Apr  4 11:55:30 2019
+\begin{table}[ht]
+  \centering
+  \resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{
+\begin{tabular}{lllrrrrr}
+  \hline
+FDI & Reporter & Partner & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 & 2017 \\ 
+  \hline
+Net & France & Extra EU28 & -13992 & 20896 & -4723 & 22938 & 4686 \\ 
+  Assets & France & Extra EU28 & -8217 & 10587 & 13310 & 32009 & 10539 \\ 
+  Liabilities & France & Extra EU28 & 5775 & -10309 & 18033 & 9071 & 5853 \\ 
+   \hline
+\end{tabular}
+}
+\end{table}
+
+The BOP data does not show the direction of the investments. The
+assets (liabilities) are the sum of the assets (liabilities) held by French companies in the extra
+EU28 plus the assets (liabilities) held by extra EU28 companies in France.
+
+\end{frame}
+
+  \begin{frame}[fragile]{FDI: Positional Representation}
+Definitions
+\begin{itemize}
+\item Flows refer to economic actions and effects of
+  events within an accounting period. Flows
+measure changes in economic value over a period of time.
+  \item Positions (also called stocks) refer
+to a level of assets or liabilities at a point in time. Stocks measure economic value at a point in time. 
+\end{itemize}
+
+Flows and
+positions are integrated so that all changes in positions between two points in time are fully explained
+by the recorded flows (in theory).
+
+In the directional presentation, FDI stocks, flows or income are classified according to the status
+of the resident entity
+\begin{itemize}
+\item Direct Investment Abroad (DIA) and
+\item Direct Investment in the Reporting Economy (DIRE)
+\end{itemize}
+\end{frame}
+
+  \begin{frame}[fragile]{FDI: An Example with the Positional
+      Representation}
+French FDI flows with extra EU28 in the directional representation. Data
+from \url{https://frama.link/G-YrCEor}
+% latex table generated in R 3.5.3 by xtable 1.8-3 package
+% Thu Apr  4 13:56:56 2019
+\begin{table}[ht]
+  \centering
+    \resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{
+\begin{tabular}{lllrrrrr}
+  \hline
+FDI & Reporter & Partner & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 & 2017 \\ 
+  \hline
+Assets (DIA) & France & Extra EU28 & -1400 & 13049 & 13880 & 26574 & 16242 \\ 
+  Liabilities (DIA) & France & Extra EU28 & -162 & -2778 & -902 & 1325 & -1928 \\ 
+  Net FDI outward & France & Extra EU28 & -1238 & 15828 & 14782 & 25248 & 18170 \\ 
+  Assets (DIRE) & France & Extra EU28 & -6815 & -2463 & -570 & 5436 & -5703 \\ 
+  Liabilities (DIRE) & France & Extra EU28 & 5936 & -7531 & 18934 & 7747 & 7782 \\ 
+  Net FDI inward & France & Extra EU28 & 12752 & -5068 & 19504 & 2311 & 13485 \\ 
+   \hline
+\end{tabular}
+}
+\end{table}
+
+\end{frame}
+
+
+  \begin{frame}[fragile]{Relation between the Two Representations 1/2}
+
+    FDI flows: first we focus on the assets.
+\begin{table}[ht]
+  \centering
+  \resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{
+\begin{tabular}{lllrrrrr}
+  \hline
+FDI & Reporter & Partner & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 & 2017 \\ 
+  \hline
+ \rowcolor{red} Assets & France & Extra EU28 & -8217 & 10587 & 13310 & 32009 & 10539 \\ 
+   \hline
+Assets (DIA) & France & Extra EU28 & -1400 & 13049 & 13880 & 26574 & 16242 \\ 
+  Assets (DIRE) & France & Extra EU28 & -6815 & -2463 & -570 & 5436 & -5703 \\ 
+  \hline
+\rowcolor{red} Assets (DIA) + Assets (DIRE) & France & Extra EU28 & -8215 & 10586 & 13310 & 32010 & 10539 \\ 
+  \hline
+ 
+\end{tabular}
+}
+\end{table}
+
+By summing the assets in the two directions (French assets invested
+abroad and extra EU28 assets invested in France), we reconstruct the
+value of the assets between France and the extra EU28 in the BOP, but
+knowing who holds assets where. The same applies to the liabilities.
+
+\end{frame}
+
+
+
+
+
+
+  \begin{frame}[fragile]{Relation between the Two Representations 2/2}
+And now let us look at the net values
+
+\begin{table}[ht]
+  \centering
+    \resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{
+\begin{tabular}{lllrrrrr}
+  \hline
+FDI & Reporter & Partner & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 & 2017 \\ 
+  \hline
+\rowcolor{red} Net & France & Extra EU28 & -13992 & 20896 & -4723 & 22938 & 4686 \\ 
+  \hline
+
+  Net FDI outward & France & Extra EU28 & -1238 & 15828 & 14782 & 25248 & 18170 \\ 
+  Net FDI inward & France & Extra EU28 & 12752 & -5068 & 19504 & 2311
+                                                     & 13485 \\
+  \hline
+\rowcolor{red} Net FDI outward - Net FDI inward  & France & Extra EU28 & -13990 & 20896 & -4722 & 22937 & 4685 \\ 
+
+   \hline
+\end{tabular}
+}
+\end{table}
+Same philosophy as before: by combining the directional data, we can
+always reconstruct the BOP data, but not the other way around. Think
+of the analogy of imports, exports and total trade between two countries.
+
+
+  \end{frame}  
+
+
+\section{Conclusions and Outlook}
+
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{Back to FDI Statistical Questions}
+  \begin{itemize}
+\item Most of the time our colleagues want the directional
+  representation of the FDI $\to$ need to know who invests
+  where.
+  \item BOP presentation of FDI data more up-to-date than the
+    directional presentation $\to$ hard time to explain why we do not
+    have any 2018 data
+    \end{itemize}
+
+\end{frame}   
+
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{How We Organize the FDI Data}
+Back to the example of France vis-à-vis the extra EU28 (with FDI
+positions from \url{https://frama.link/9brZZqup})
+
+% latex table generated in R 3.5.3 by xtable 1.8-3 package
+% Fri Apr  5 11:22:09 2019
+\begin{table}[ht]
+  \centering
+   \resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{ 
+\begin{tabular}{rllrrrr}
+  \hline
+year & reporter & partner & in\_stock & out\_stock & in\_flow & out\_flow \\ 
+  \hline
+2013 & France & Extra-EU28 & 152278 & 388710 & 12752 & -1238 \\ 
+  2014 & France & Extra-EU28 & 153163 & 443728 & -5068 & 15828 \\ 
+  2015 & France & Extra-EU28 & 173425 & 497881 & 19504 & 14782 \\ 
+  2016 & France & Extra-EU28 & 180456 & 530661 & 2311 & 25248 \\ 
+  2017 & France & Extra-EU28 & 197491 & 493628 & 13485 & 18170 \\ 
+   \hline
+\end{tabular}
+}
+\end{table}
+
+It would be ideal to retrieve directly the data in this format from the
+ESTAT website. NB: the flows do not account entirely for the stocks variation.
+  
+\end{frame}   
+
+\begin{frame}[fragile]{What We Would Like}
+  \begin{itemize}
+\item To have the FDI data in two specialised tables (BOP and
+  directional) already in a user-friendly format (we can give ESTAT
+  some examples of the desired formats).
+  \item Fresher directional data. We accepts estimates, footnotes,
+    preliminary flags etc...
+  \item A better coverage on what China does (due to a growing
+    interest on Chinese investments).
+    \item Suggestions? Extra?
+  \end{itemize}  
+
+\end{frame}   
+  
+\end{document}